Help needed from higher order!

Crape... the reverse trough formed faster than anticipated ( thanks to Obama ). The gap between signal is forming with signal tracing the MACD on a downward trend. Further drop will be anticipated which is likely to be escalated by selling momentum. Some intervention from higher order will be needed to save the day.

Oracle Prevails

‘Oracle wins unconditional EU approval for Sun buy’ by Reuters 21 January 2010. Not that anyone thinks that EU will reject Oracle bids, but something about it just make me feel uncomfortable, somehow I was hoping that EU being EU will take their time to clear their final hurdle ( is it subconscious loyalty to my company? =D )

That said. It might not be so bad competition. Given their unwavering sales tactics, the buying of Sun might just escalate the exodus of customers who are tired of the increasing premium Oracle demands. For those who fear that they might be turning Mysql and Java to the darkside, it is just not going to happen - at least for now. The only thing that interests me is how going vertical with this move will benefit their bottom line. It will be interesting to see how they are going to integrate their products in the next few quarters - I suspect we should be seeing some interesting development on their saas business. Sun servers business however should be BAU for now.

May the force be with you
Henry

Can Corporate save the day?

Took a snap shot of S&P 500 from yahoo finance. Seems like we are heading for a rough time these couple of weeks. RSI is signaling a reversal trend. The intersection of the moving average and signal formed a reversal trough which more or less confirm the downward trend. Hopefully good news from the corporate releases will provide some reprieve, from a technical standpoint though..not that great...

Google Versus Iphone

Seems like the talk of the town these days revolved either around the topic of Google remaining days in China and it’s straining relationship with Apple Inc. The latter issue has been kicked into overdrive since the debut of Nexus this month. All eyes have been on whether the new device will stand up to the challenge posed by the seemingly invincible Iphone. For now, it seems that that Apple has the upper hand and Google appears to be struggling with their new found retail business. By building its own device, Google has risked to damage its alliance (OHA) with other handset makers. Motorola, for one having put all their bets in Android is hoping that this will be a game changer for them and Nexus it seem may threaten this desperate effort to revive their waning mobile business.

Having viewed the demo online for Nexus one, I can say that it has size up to Iphone considerably well. Nexus has in fact outweighed Iphone in several hardware specifications and the only thing lacking is the availability of apps in its online shop. All said, Google do not need hands down victory over Iphone and Nexus is just a mere demonstration to the world what Android is capable of.

Both Iphone and Nexus come at a hefty price tag and despite of all the excitement Iphone gathers in North America and Europe, it does not appear to garner the same popularity countries like Japan, China, Indonesia etc. for numerous reasons – Apple for all it is, is just not able to reach out to the whole world. The OHA may therefore prove to be the wining hand for Google. The success of the alliance the use of android in a bigger variety of devices that will suit various markets and it is the adoption rate of Android that will matters to Google growing cloud business. It remains to be seen see how confidence can be imbued back to the shaken alliance……

Interesting Read 1

Posted on January 18, 2010 issue of Newsweek: "Swipe Early, Swipe Often" By Benjamin Sutherland: http://www.newsweek.com/id/229851 showcase device that can be attached to phone device that can be use to swipe credit card.

The battle for the clouds (Google)

Imagine this… you power on your computer at home, a web based client instantly pops up with an interface similarly to that of facebook, twitter allowing you to socialize with your friends. Don’t like their layout? Just change the background or shift the widgets around to your liking. Want to create a words document? No problem, you just click on the web link on the page and you are immediately directed a new tab with a familiar MSoffice like interface. PDF, Excel, PowerPoint you name it, they are all available. Moreover, you don’t even need a power desktop as all the apps are loaded in an apps server and your document in some SAN storage that can be situated somewhere in the world. But what happen if you are on the road, you might ask? Just grab your phone from your pocket, release the key lock and Viola! You are greeted with an interface similar to that of your desktop but tailored for your device. You can access all your friends’ contacts and what’s more, you can dig out the document you prepare last night to review and even edit it real-time. More incredibly, these are available at a low subscription fee! Hmmm, that doesn’t sound too appealing? Well, there is a cost free option, you just need to do a simple registration online and pick the type of Ads from a list of companies you are interested in and this will then in turn be displayed on side bar of your PC or as flashing icons on your phone. But you will need to pick a minimum number of Ads option to qualify for the free subscription.

Sounds familiar? This is because the transition has already begun. Among the various efforts to move us towards this new paradigm, Google stands out as the clear contender. After winning much deserving fame from their search engine algorithm, much effort has been spent in rolling out application that complements its existing business.

In 2004, Google launched its first web mail application which was very well received by the public. At the same time, they also acquired a technology company Where2, which it later used to springboard its Google map service. The location based product line initiative has since blossom into whole range of popular products such as Google earth, google map mobile apps, Google latitude etc.

In 2005, Google bought Android Inc., a small startup firm that specializes in mobile phone software. This paved the way for them to launch Android OS for mobile devices with the first device HTC dream being launched in 2008.

In 2006, they launched Google doc line of product, providing web based documentation editing and creating tools.

In 2008, Google release its own web browser.

Google announced their plan to launch its own Operating System, Google Chrome OS in 2009 (Chrome Preview: www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QRO3gKj3qw ). In the same year, they also acquired Admob, a mobile advertising company and launch its Google Wave web services. The warm reception Wave initially garnered sizzle out after a while as user realize that it is not be a tool for everyone but Wave nonetheless serves as a playground for Google to experiment with application, services that will enhance our user experience in future..

So what is in stall for 2010, Just last week Google launched its first own mobile product Nexus one. The device that did not receive good press and was clouded by issue ranging from data connectivity and support management. But Google isn’t Apple; it is trailing in unfamiliar ground, which is retailing. It remains to be seen if they can learn about selling stuff as good as they churn out web services. Google will probably be launching their Chrome OS line of products this year and they will likely adopt two approaches in this line of their products. We will see some new releases for Chrome web browser. They will probably want to revamp the layout of the web browser to make it similar to what they have on Chrome OS, giving the users on other platforms access to Chrome OS environment. They will likely partner or acquire a thin client manufacturer such as Devon IT, Ncomputing, WYSE Tech etc., all who participated in the Vegas CES. Much like Android’s phone, Google may decide to sell the Chrome devices themselves, well… that will depends on how their latest Nexus move fans out.

Google, I think will be also be thinking of buying (or already in the midst of buying) one of the popular social networking companies. Twitters and Facebook looks probable (I would have chosen Facebook, but that’s just me ). But even then, they would have to convince Mark. Z to sell and they might want to do this before Facebook launch their much anticipated IPO, of course Facebook will not be cheap.

Henry

My 2 cents view for 2010

As a whole I see world economy entering a sizeable downward correction phase in Q2.

US dollar should edge up in after Q3 and stabilized at that spread throughout the year.

Gold will maintained as a choice of hedge and price will likely remain above 1000USD throughout 2010

Oil should be reach 90ish level in Q2 but is unlikely to break 100USD resistance. It will likely be bearish for the rest towards year end.

Let see hows my prediction fans out... finger cross!

India growing mobile story

The recent publication on Bloomberg caught my eye ""India Telecoms Cut to ‘Cautious’ at Morgan Stanley". Those who I have spoken to, knows that I have been advocating the view that the next two years will be tough for Telco players in India. Although she is still without doubt the highest growing mobile market in the world, the ARPU in India is extremely low as a result of fierce pricing war between competitors and low utilization rate (in rural area) which will continue to take their toll on the players. In spite of this, India remains a pretty attractive venue for foreign players eager to find an alternative to their maturing domestic market. The most prominent of this is of course Vodafone. After acquiring the Hutch’s controlling stake from Hutch Essar, Vodafone Essar has been by far the most aggressive foreign player in India trailing only behind Bharti and Reliance in term of customers. The payoff to Vodafone has been a take rate of around 2 millions new subscribers in the exploding market every month. Mind boggling it seems, but it will be a number the giant has to keep up with in order to make presence relevant in a market with such low margin. But with its deep pocket however, Vodafone will surely remains as one of the top contenders in the imminent consolidation.

India regulator, TRAI for its part has been more willing to let the market “invisible hand” works its magic as compared to China. Like most emerging markets however, TRAI influence I feel has been lacking in area where control matters and policies so far has been drawn with consumer as the primary interest. This will need to be change for the long term benefit of India telecommunication ecosystem. Ultimately, collapsing carriers will serve to benefit no one, unless you are shopping for one.

Let it begins

I have been dwelling about the idea of blogging for awhile... Well, its definitely a cost effective way in getting your idea across... that is, if anyone bothers to read it.. LOL

so here goes.....